User blog:TheWickedWizardOfOz/5th Place Match (Sergeants and Lieutenants)

So, looking back at my predictions from last year, I realise they were made under the impression that the 5th Match would be played over ten hanchan, rather than the five hanchan it's actually played on. I am happy with this for one reason, being that it only takes about a month real time for the matches to be over. As much as I wish that they were two hanchan (and so my predictions look a little better), I'm quite happy with how it's turning out right now. If we just lowered the point loss/gains from them, I'd say my predictions are quite accurate, with the current exception being Hanada beating out Suzu. Although, I expect both Captain's and Vice-Captain's matches to be a little longer, like the Vanguard matches, so we might be finished with the 5th match by October if they're 3~4 each.

Personally, I like the extra content we're getting; I know that several others have expressed that they don't care about the 5th place match, seeing it as a waste of screentime and panels on secondary characters and stalling for time before the Finals. However, if this gives Ritz a little more time to carefully look at, plan for, and execute the Finals properly, then I'm all for it; furthermore, the more mahjong we get the better it is for me :) This has also been her only project for the past decade and a little bit more?  If she wants to stretch it out a little longer, I don't see what's wrong with that.

Anyways, the sergeant match went just about as expected (ie, boring). Izumi has a small deficit, Yuuko and Yoshiko have a small surplus, and Chikako lagging behind. I didn't expect Ritz to give Usuzan a haneman there, but it keeps the point totals more manageable than a mangan or baiman, I guess. I'm actually surprised, because such small point differences at the end of a mahjong hanchan are quite rare; but, it seems to me that the sergeant match is where Ritz typically keeps the points similar but props up the minor point differences that are needed later on in the match, the big exception being in the Nagano Finals ofc, due to Kaori's yakuman; hardly ever to people win more than 15,000 in the Sergeant match. Although Yuu and Yoshiko did just that in the semifinals, more often than not the point totals are smaller, and that was mostly to give Sera a big show imo.

Speaking of, I found the lieutenant match quite interesting. In the direct contest between Hiroe and Sera, they managed to pull out the results of each other's styles: Hiroe won more points, but Sera protected her lead, which I thought was an interesting choice, furthering the contrast between them. I also think it's interesting how Hiroe's defence augments her offence (lowering her hand values to keep winning tiles) while Sera's offence augments her defence (increasing her hand value but lowering her waits to keep winning tiles). I'm a bit disappointed that despite having 3 chapters to the lieutenant match, only a few hands were shown in detail. I suppose this is a byproduct of needing to show everyone's hands to demonstrate the defensive capabilities of Sera and Hiroe, but I didn't like it when we had a series of panels of the players calling out their point totals - it's boring and just a string of numbers, we don't even see their winning hands or who they won off of. Of course, I could go through the work of figuring that out by calculating backwards, but I shouldn't have to. Don't bother showing that many panels of people calling out points when it could be used drawing the mahjong progression or developing characters.

Either way, the lieutenant match turned out as I predicted, Hiroe and Sera fighting for first, with Hiroe winning more points but Sera staying first due to the lead she was given; although the point difference between them is larger than I expected. Ezaki losing some points, but Yuan losing the majority of the points.

However, I'm excited for the Vice-Captain's match! Mairu and Himeko are actually my favourite characters not in the Finals. I love that they transcend the "single player" aspect of mahjong and that their ability directly links them together, which really enhances the "team feeling" in a game that would traditionally be single players versing other players, which is especially important given the manga's focus on the team tournament. I'm also ready for Mairu to kick some serious butt, a 30000 point deficit should be a piece of cake for her - she doesn't even need to take first because Himeko is playing after her! I'm also looking forward to Maya's appearance. I'm not that fond of her ability: a single tsumo that's a mangan (or more) is not that helpful in this setting, and is even worse in the individual tournament where you play several hanchan in one day. It's good for casual play, no doubt, but she really does seem like a regular player besides her shining tsumo, especially given that Mairu has established that she can easily match a win like that.

I am interested in seeing how Kinue matches up though, given that the worst she faced was Uzusumi who was held down for her by Sae. Especially given how Kinue and FunaQ are also cousins, but this fact seems to be forgotten by everyone in the universe and Ritz lmao. FunaQ has already shown that she can score points even with Mairu on the table, so I'm no worried about her keeping first for Senriyama. I stick with my prediction from before though, FunaQ and Kinue will have negative point gains while Mairu and Maya close the gap, probably with Mairu taking second. She's not in as big a deficit as in the semifinals, so she won't be pulling out a baiman anytime soon imo, but still, two or three 3-han limit wins and she can practically guarantee first place for Shindouji - especially if they're lucky with dealer repeats.

After that however, the Captain's match is hard to predict, because it all depends on how many hands Mairu will win. It also depends on how many Kamuy Sawaya has left, I know she has two clouds left (it seems that they take days to regenerate, so the clouds she used in the semifinals will definitely not return), which could be enough if used judiciously. I'm also interested in seeing how Ryuuka's ability has changed with Toki's ability evolving and still being in the venue to charge Ryuuka's thighs. In the semifinals, Ryuuka used Toki's future sight about 6 times, which is plenty for a single hanchan, not counting dealer repeats that's already 3/4ths of the hanchan, and she'll know not to use them in hands that Mairu has won to increase the chances of seeing a winning hand. However, I doubt she'll score a baiman with this given there isn't an Oohoshi to constantly spam haneman.